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机械设备:消费升级发新枝 木工机械高成长

木工机械应用广泛,柔性生产设备加工中心受青睐。木工机械可以应用于木材加工的各个环节,锯切、刨、铣、砂光、钻孔、胶合、表面处理、涂装、木材处理等工序都有相应的木工机械。除传统木工机械外,随着定制家具需求的增长,新型的木工机械加工中心受到下游家具制造业的青睐。
家具行业与商品房销售量联系密切,木工机械行业对商品房销售量的滞后效应逐渐减弱。我们分析发现商品房销售对木工机械的传导可总结为:商品房销售-家具需求-家具行业营收-家具行业资本支出-木工机械行业营收。研究表明,2008年前,木工机械滞后于商品房销售27个月左右;在2008~2010年期间,木工机械滞后于商品房销售缩短至15个月左右;2012年以后,由于家具行业受消费升级、商品房二次装修等因素影响的加大,家具行业营收增速逐渐趋稳,受商品房销售的影响减弱,因此木工机械行业对商品房销售量的滞后效应也逐渐减弱。

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